On February 8, the Bitcoin (BTC) community received incredibly bullish news when Tesla CEO, Elon Musk announced that his company had purchased $1.5 billion worth of BTC. In the same press release, Musk also revealed that the company would accept BTC as a method of payment for its Tesla automobiles. Immediately following the press release, the price of BTC exploded to the upside, gaining $6,881 (Chart #1).
The announcement by Musk marked the beginning of a massive rally in Bitcoin. Over the course of the next two months, BTC increased 73%.
Elon Musk quickly became one of the biggest supporters of the Bitcoin ecosystem. Of course, the entire crypto community was more than happy to embrace Musk as its newest member of the “family.” In addition to being CEO of Tesla, he is the wealthiest person on the planet. In fact, Tesla’s purchase of BTC was the major contributing factor to catapulting Musk ahead of Jeff Bezos as the world’s wealthiest person. Therefore, Musk was viewed as the perfect ambassador for the Bitcoin community.
Unfortunately, the happy relationship between Musk and the crypto community was short-lived. What happened? Why did Elon Musk suddenly withdraw his endorsement of the Bitcoin ecosystem? More importantly, how will this affect the future direction of Bitcoin along with the entire cryptocurrency universe? Let’s discuss the details.
Elon Musk Abruptly Changes His View on Bitcoin
Elon Musk is one of the greatest entrepreneurs in modern American history. Musk rose to fame in the late 1990s during the internet mania, as one of the original founders of PayPal. Over the course of the past two decades, he has been responsible for creating a number of highly successful business ventures.
Musk is most famously known for his affiliation with Tesla, which was launched in July 2003. In addition to Tesla, Musk is also involved in the Boring Company and SpaceX. As mentioned, his entrepreneurial success recently turned Musk into the wealthiest person on the planet, according to Forbes Magazine.
Over the course of the past few years, he has received an increasing amount of scrutiny from various environmental groups concerning Tesla’s commitment to producing energy-efficient vehicles. Additionally, the company’s automobile plants are closely monitored by several third parties in an effort to determine if Tesla is maintaining an eco-friendly working environment. Tesla promotes itself as an industry leader in using renewable energy to operate its manufacturing facilities. This probably explains why the company is constantly critiqued and observed by independent agencies.
Bitcoin has come under frequent and repeated attack by a number of environmentally-friendly research groups concerning its potential damage to the environment, particularly as it relates to Bitcoin mining. These research groups claim that the Bitcoin mining process consumes a great deal of non-renewable energy and emits an ever-increasing amount of carbon into the atmosphere. They question whether Bitcoin’s damage to the environment is outweighed by its benefit as a long-term store of value. This has been an ongoing debate between Bitcoiners and environmental groups for the past few years. However, the debate has certainly intensified during the past few months.
This brings us back to Elon Musk and his endorsement of Bitcoin. Given the fact that Tesla is currently struggling with its own environmental issues, Elon and his inner circle of advisors probably determined that Tesla’s involvement with Bitcoin was a poorly-timed decision. Most likely, this explains why Musk withdrew his support of BTC as a medium of exchange.
Musk released his now-famous tweet on May 12, in which he tweeted that Tesla would no longer accept Bitcoin as a method of payment for its automobiles.
Musk cited “environmental concerns” as the reason why Tesla suspended its acceptance of Bitcoin. Immediately upon the release of Elon’s tweet, the price of BTC quickly began to roll over to the downside. By the end of the day, BTC had lost 9.5% of its value.
BTC continued to drop for the next three days, as Musk released a few additional negative comments about Bitcoin and many analysts are wondering if the bottom is in yet, after BTC briefly dove below $40,000 on May 19. So, where do we go from here? In order to answer this question, let’s examine Bitcoin based on technical analysis.
Analyzing Bitcoin Based on Technical Analysis
Bitcoin peaked @ 64,789 on April 14. During the past four weeks, BTC had dropped by more than 34% (Chart #2), only to tumble even lower below the $40,000 mark on May 19.
How does this sell-off compare with declines from other bull market cycles? Let’s analyze the most recent bull market cycle from 2017. BTC generated a dramatic rally in the second half of 2017, advancing 570% from September through December. However, Bitcoin also experienced two sharp declines of 39.7% and 30.0%, respectively (Chart #3).
Even though the current decline is certainly painful for the Bitcoin bulls, it is quite normal when compared to other historical downturns.
Despite the current decline, the daily chart pattern for Bitcoin continues to remain bullish. The first sign of trouble for the bulls would be a weekly close below 37,409 (Chart #4). The BTC chart pattern will turn decidedly bearish if 37,409 is penetrated on a weekly closing basis.
In terms of the hourly chart, the bears are in control. In order to reverse the bearish momentum, the bulls need a daily close above 59,696 (Chart #5). The most likely scenario over the course of the next few weeks is a trading range.
BTC could easily remain locked in a trading range for the next several weeks. The important numbers to watch are 37,409 and 59,696.
Analyzing Ethereum Based on Technical Analysis
Although Bitcoin has garnered the majority of media attention during the past few days, Elon’s comments have wreaked havoc on the entire cryptocurrency universe. Almost all coins and tokens have suffered brutal declines. Let’s briefly review Ethereum (ETH) from a technical perspective.
Prior to the Tesla news, ETH was in the middle of a dramatic rally dating back to the pandemic low in March 2020. ETH recorded a major low on 13 March 2020 @ 89.50. The cryptocurrency preceded to rally 4,783% during the next 14 months, reaching its peak on 12 May @ 4,370.76.
The very next day, Elon Musk released his tweet concerning Tesla’s plan to stop accepting Bitcoin. Although Elon’s tweet was not aimed directly at Ethereum, it nevertheless sparked a brutal sell-off in ETH. Within 72 hours, ETH had declined 28.2% (Chart #6).
In spite of the sharp decline, the Ethereum chart pattern remains persistently bullish. It would take a weekly close below 1,937 to flip the chart from bullish to bearish (Chart #7).
This type of price drop is certainly possible. However, it’s highly unlikely. Going forward, ETH will most likely remain in a trading range for the next several weeks, as it consolidates the recent sharp decline.
As long as the price stays above 1,937, ETH should easily create a new all-time high above 4,370 by the end of 2021.
All Signs Point to Higher Crypto Prices
It’s very easy for crypto traders and investors to become fixated on short-term fluctuations in the crypto markets. Many traders (particularly novice traders) have a tendency to focus only on the negative crypto news while ignoring the long-term bullish outlook.
Bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies have received a tremendous amount of bullish news during the past several months, particularly at the institutional level. A wave of institutional money has flooded into the crypto universe during the past nine months. This is extremely bullish from a “big picture” multi-year perspective.
While it’s certainly possible that Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies could experience another sharp leg to the downside, this won’t change the bullish outlook from a long-term global perspective. Cryptocurrencies are in the early stages of completely disrupting industries that have been in existence for hundreds of years. There will be several bumps along the way (e.g. Elon Musk’s tweets). However, investors who can tolerate the short-term volatility will be rewarded with long-term success.
Digitex writers and/or guest authors may or may not have a vested interest in the Digitex project and/or other businesses mentioned throughout the site. None of the content on Digitex is investment advice nor is it a replacement for advice from a certified financial planner.